21733@AAAI

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#1 A Synthetic Prediction Market for Estimating Confidence in Published Work [PDF] [Copy] [Kimi]

Authors: Sarah Rajtmajer ; Christopher Griffin ; Jian Wu ; Robert Fraleigh ; Laxmaan Balaji ; Anna Squicciarini ; Anthony Kwasnica ; David Pennock ; Michael McLaughlin ; Timothy Fritton ; Nishanth Nakshatri ; Arjun Menon ; Sai Ajay Modukuri ; Rajal Nivargi ; Xin Wei ; C. Lee Giles

Explainably estimating confidence in published scholarly work offers opportunity for faster and more robust scientific progress. We develop a synthetic prediction market to assess the credibility of published claims in the social and behavioral sciences literature. We demonstrate our system and detail our findings using a collection of known replication projects. We suggest that this work lays the foundation for a research agenda that creatively uses AI for peer review.