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#1 Full Bayesian Significance Testing for Neural Networks in Traffic Forecasting [PDF1] [Copy] [Kimi1] [REL]

Authors: Zehua Liu ; Jingyuan Wang ; Zimeng Li ; Yue He

Due to the complex and dynamic traffic contexts, the interpretability and uncertainty of traffic forecasting have gained increasing attention. Significance testing is a powerful tool in statistics used to determine whether a hypothesis is valid, facilitating the identification of pivotal features that predominantly contribute to the true relationship. However, existing works mainly regard traffic forecasting as a deterministic problem, making it challenging to perform effective significance testing. To fill this gap, we propose to conduct Full Bayesian Significance Testing for Neural Networks in Traffic Forecasting, namely ST-nFBST. A Bayesian neural network is utilized to capture the complicated traffic relationships through an optimization function resolved in the context of aleatoric uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. Thereupon, ST-nFBST can achieve the significance testing by means of a delicate grad-based evidence value, further capturing the inherent traffic schema for better spatiotemporal modeling. Extensive experiments are conducted on METR-LA and PEMS-BAY to verify the advantages of our method in terms of uncertainty analysis and significance testing, helping the interpretability and promotion of traffic forecasting.