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#1 TTF: A Trapezoidal Temporal Fusion Framework for LTV Forecasting in Douyin [PDF] [Copy] [Kimi] [REL]

Authors: Yibing Wan, Zhengxiong Guan, Chaoli Zhang, Xiaoyang Li, Lai Xu, Beibei Jia, Zhenzhe Zheng, Fan Wu

In the user growth scenario, Internet companies invest heavily in paid acquisition channels to acquire new users. But sustainable growth depends on acquired users' generating lifetime value (LTV) exceeding customer acquisition cost (CAC). In order to maximize LTV/CAC ratio, it is crucial to predict channel-level LTV in an early stage for further optimization of budget allocation. The LTV forecasting problem is significantly different from traditional time series forecasting problems, and there are three main challenges. Firstly, it is an unaligned multi-time series forecasting problem that each channel has a number of LTV series of different activation dates. Secondly, to predict in the early stage, it faces the imbalanced short-input long-output (SILO) challenge. Moreover, compared with the commonly used time series datasets, the real LTV series are volatile and non-stationary, with more frequent fluctuations and higher variance. In this work, we propose a novel framework called Trapezoidal Temporal Fusion (TTF) to address the above challenges. We introduce a trapezoidal multi-time series module to deal with data unalignment and SILO challenges, and output accurate predictions with a multi-tower structure called MT-FusionNet. The framework has been deployed to the online system for Douyin. Compared to the previously deployed online model, MAPE_p decreased by 4.3%, and MAPE_a decreased by 3.2%, where MAPE_p denotes the point-wise MAPE of the LTV curve and MAPE_a denotes the MAPE of the aggregated LTV.

Subject: AAAI.2026 - IAAI