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#1 Winner-takes-all for Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting [PDF] [Copy] [Kimi1] [REL]

Authors: Adrien Cortes, Remi Rehm, Victor Letzelter

We introduce $\texttt{TimeMCL}$, a method leveraging the Multiple Choice Learning (MCL) paradigm to forecast multiple plausible time series futures. Our approach employs a neural network with multiple heads and utilizes the Winner-Takes-All (WTA) loss to promote diversity among predictions. MCL has recently gained attention due to its simplicity and ability to address ill-posed and ambiguous tasks. We propose an adaptation of this framework for time-series forecasting, presenting it as an efficient method to predict diverse futures, which we relate to its implicit *quantization* objective. We provide insights into our approach using synthetic data and evaluate it on real-world time series, demonstrating its promising performance at a light computational cost.

Subject: ICML.2025 - Poster