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In the professional sport of cricket, batting order assignment is of significant interest and importance to coaches, players, and fans as an influencing parameter on the game outcome. The impact of batting order on scoring runs is widely known and managers are often judged based on their perceived weakness or strength in setting the batting order. In practice, a combination of experts’ intuitions plus a few descriptive and sometimes conflicting performance statistics are used to assign an order to the batters in a team line-up before the games and in player replacement due to injuries during the games. In this paper, we propose the use of learning methods in automatic line-up order assignment based on several measures of performance and historical data. We discuss the importance of this problem in designing a winning strategy for cricket teams and the challenges this application introduces to the community and the currently existing approaches in AI.
A wide variety of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques, from expert systems to machine learning to robotics, are needed in the field of synthetic biology. This paper describes the design-build-test engineering cycle and lists some challenges in which AI can help.
Over the years, government service provision in China has been plagued by inefficiencies. Previous attempts to address this challenge following a toolbox e-government system model in China were not effective. In this paper, we report on a successful experience in improving government service provision in the domain of social insurance in Shandong Province, China. Through standardization of service workflows following the Complete Contract Theory (CCT) and the infusion of an artificial intelligence (AI) engine to maximize the expected quality of service while reducing waiting time, the Smart Human-resource Services (SmartHS) platform transcends organizational boundaries and improves system efficiency. Deployments in 3 cities involving 2,000 participating civil servants and close to 3 million social insurance service cases over a 1 year period demonstrated that SmartHS significantly improves user experience with roughly a third of the original front desk staff. This new AI-enhanced mode of operation is useful for informing current policy discussions in many domains of government service provision.
Employee scheduling is one of the most difficult challenges facing any small business owner. The problem becomes more complex when employees with different levels of seniority indicate preferences for specific roles in certain shifts and request flexible work hours outside of the standard eight-hour block. Many business owners and managers, who cannot afford (or choose not to use) commercially-available timetabling apps, spend numerous hours creating sub-optimal schedules by hand, leading to low staff morale. In this paper, we explain how two undergraduate students generalized the Nurse Scheduling Problem to take into account multiple roles and flexible work hours, and implemented a user-friendly automated timetabler based on a four-dimensional integer linear program. This system has been successfully deployed at two businesses in our community, each with 20+ employees: a coffee shop and a health clinic.
Sketching can be a valuable tool for science education, but it is currently underutilized. Sketch worksheets were developed to help change this, by using AI technology to give students immediate feedback and to give instructors assistance in grading. Sketch worksheets use visual representations automatically computed by CogSketch, which are combined with conceptual information from the OpenCyc ontology. Feedback is provided to students by comparing an instructor’s sketch to a student’s sketch, using the Structure-Mapping Engine. This paper describes our experiences in deploying sketch worksheets in two types of classes: Geoscience and AI. Sketch worksheets for introductory geoscience classes were developed by geoscientists at University of Wisconsin-Madison, authored using CogSketch and used in classes at both Wisconsin and Northwestern University. Sketch worksheets were also developed and deployed for a knowledge representation and reasoning course at Northwestern. Our experience indicates that sketch worksheets can provide helpful on-the-spot feedback to students, and significantly improve grading efficiency, to the point where sketching assignments can be more practical to use broadly in STEM education.
Revenue forecasting is required by most enterprises for strategic business planning and for providing expected future results to investors. However, revenue forecasting processes in most companies are time-consuming and error-prone as they are performed manually by hundreds of financial analysts. In this paper, we present a novel machine learning based revenue forecasting solution that we developed to forecast 100% of Microsoft's revenue (around $85 Billion in 2016), and is now deployed into production as an end-to-end automated and secure pipeline in Azure. Our solution combines historical trend and seasonal patterns with additional information, e.g., sales pipeline data, within a unified modeling framework. In this paper, we describe our framework including the features, method for hyperparameters tuning of ML models using time series cross-validation, and generation of prediction intervals. We also describe how we architected an end-to-end secure and automated revenue forecasting solution on Azure using Cortana Intelligence Suite. Over consecutive quarters, our machine learning models have continuously produced forecasts with an average accuracy of 98-99 percent for various divisions within Microsoft's Finance organization. As a result, our models have been widely adopted by them and are now an integral part of Microsoft's most important forecasting processes, from providing Wall Street guidance to managing global sales performance.
Question answering is one of the primary challenges of natural language understanding. In realizing such a system, providing complex long answers to questions is a challenging task as opposed to factoid answering as the former needs context disambiguation. The different methods explored in the literature can be broadly classified into three categories namely: 1) classification based, 2) knowledge graph based and 3) retrieval based. Individually, none of them address the need of an enterprise wide assistance system for an IT support and maintenance domain. In this domain, the variance of answers is large ranging from factoid to structured operating procedures; the knowledge is present across heterogeneous data sources like application specific documentation, ticket management systems and any single technique for a general purpose assistance is unable to scale for such a landscape. To address this, we have built a cognitive platform with capabilities adopted for this domain. Further, we have built a general purpose question answering system leveraging the platform that can be instantiated for multiple products, technologies in the support domain. The system uses a novel hybrid answering model that orchestrates across a deep learning classifier, a knowledge graph based context disambiguation module and a sophisticated bag-of-words search system. This orchestration performs context switching for a provided question and also does a smooth hand-off of the question to a human expert if none of the automated techniques can provide a confident answer. This system has been deployed across 675 internal enterprise IT support and maintenance projects.
Conversion rate optimization (CRO) means designing an e-commerce web interface so that as many users as possible take a desired action such as registering for an account, requesting a contact, or making a purchase. Such design is usually done by hand, evaluating one change at a time through A/B testing, or evaluating all combinations of two or three variables through multivariate testing. Traditional CRO is thus limited to a small fraction of the design space only. This paper describes Sentient Ascend, an automatic CRO system that uses evolutionary search to discover effective web interfaces given a human-designed search space. Design candidates are evaluated in parallel on line with real users, making it possible to discover and utilize interactions between the design elements that are difficult to identify otherwise. A commercial product since September 2016, Ascend has been applied to numerous web interfaces across industries and search space sizes, with up to four-fold improvements over human design. Ascend can therefore be seen as massively multivariate CRO made possible by AI.
Games have been a major focus of AI since the field formed seventy years ago. Recently, video games have replaced chess and go as the current "Mt. Everest Problem." This paper looks beyond the video games themselves to the application of AI techniques within the ecosystems that produce them. Electronic Arts (EA) must deal with AI at scale across many game studios as it develops many AAA games each year, and not a single, AI-based, flagship application. EA has adopted a horizontal scaling strategy in response to this challenge and built a platform for delivering AI artifacts anywhere within EA's software universe. By combining a data warehouse for player history, an Agent Store for capturing processes acquired through machine learning, and a recommendation engine as an action layer, EA has been delivering a wide range of AI solutions throughout the company during the last two years. These solutions, such as dynamic difficulty adjustment, in-game content and activity recommendations, matchmaking, and game balancing, have had major impact on engagement, revenue, and development resources within EA.
NASA has acquired more than 22 million images from the planet Mars. To help users find images of interest, we developed a content-based search capability for Mars rover surface images and Mars orbital images. We started with the AlexNet convolutional neural network, which was trained on Earth images, and used transfer learning to adapt the network for use with Mars images. We report on our deployment of these classifiers within the PDS Imaging Atlas, a publicly accessible web interface, to enable the first content-based image search for NASA’s Mars images.
Understanding source code of large open-source software projects is very challenging when there is only little documentation. New developers face the task of classifying a huge number of files and functions without any help. This paper documents a novel approach to this problem, called FEAT, that automatically extracts topoi from source code by using hierarchical agglomerative clustering. Program topoi summarize the main capabilities of a software system by presenting to developers clustered lists of functions together with an index of their relevant words. The clustering method used in FEAT exploits a new hybrid distance which combines both textual and structural elements automatically extracted from source code and comments. The experimental evaluation of FEAT shows that this approach is suitable to understand open-source software projects of size approaching 2,000 functions and 150 files, which opens the door for its deployment in the open-source community.
We tackle the problem of authenticating high value Italian wines through machine learning classification. The problem is a seriuos one, since protection of high quality wines from forgeries is worth several million of Euros each year. In a previous work we have identified some base models (in particular classifiers based on Bayesian network (BNC), multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and sequential minimal optimization (SMO)) that well behave using unexpensive chemical analyses of the interested wines. In the present paper, we investigate the role of esemble learning in the construction of more robust classifiers; results suggest that, while bagging and boosting may significantly improve both BNC and MLP, the SMO model is already very robust and efficient as a base learner. We report on results concerning both cross validation on two different datasets, as well as experiments with models trained with the above datasets and tested with a dataset of potentially fake wines; this has been synthesized from a generative probabilistic model learned from real samples and expert knowledge.
We present a novel approach to modeling stories using recurrent neural networks. Different story features are extracted using natural language processing techniques and used to encode the stories as sequences. These sequences can be learned by deep neural networks, in order to predict the next story events. The predictions can be used as an inspiration for writers who experience a writer's block. We further assist writers in their creative process by generating visualizations of the character interactions in the story. We show that suggestions from our model are rated as highly as the real scenes from a set of films and that our visualizations can help people in gaining deeper story understanding.
In the field of digital marketing, understanding the voice of the customer is paramount. Mining textual content written by visitors on websites or social media can offer new dimensions to marketers and CX executives. Traditional tasks in NLP like sentiment analysis, topic modeling etc. can solve only certain specific problems but don’t provide a generic solution to identifying/understanding the intention behind a text. In this paper we consider higher dimensional extensions to the sentiment concept by incorporating labels like product enquiry, buying intent, seeking help, feedback and pricing query which give us a deeper understanding of the text. We show how our model performs in a real-world enterprise use case. Word2Vec embeddings are used for word representations and later we compare three algorithms for classification. SVM’s provide us with a strong baseline. Two deep learning models viz. vanilla CNN and RNN’s with LSTM are compared. With no use of hard-coded or hand engineered features, our generic model can be used in a variety of use cases where text mining is involved with ease.
The number of malicious programs has grown both in number and in sophistication. Analyzing the malicious intent of vast amounts of data requires huge resources and thus, effective categorization of malware is required. In this paper, the content of a malicious program is represented as an entropy stream, where each value describes the amount of entropy of a small chunk of code in a specific location of the file. Wavelet transforms are then applied to this entropy signal to describe the variation in the entropic energy. Motivated by the visual similarity between streams of entropy of malicious software belonging to the same family, we propose a file agnostic deep learning approach for categorization of malware. Our method exploits the fact that most variants are generated by using common obfuscation techniques and that compression and encryption algorithms retain some properties present in the original code. This allows us to find discriminative patterns that almost all variants in a family share. Our method has been evaluated using the data provided by Microsoft for the BigData Innovators Gathering Anti-Malware Prediction Challenge, and achieved promising results in comparison with the State of the Art.
The task of decision-making under uncertainty is daunting, especially for problems which have significant complexity. Healthcare policy makers across the globe are facing problems under challenging constraints, with limited tools to help them make data driven decisions. In this work we frame the process of finding an optimal malaria policy as a stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, and implement three agent based strategies to explore the policy space. We apply a Gaussian Process regression to the findings of each agent, both for comparison and to account for stochastic results from simulating the spread of malaria in a fixed population. The generated policy spaces are compared with published results to give a direct reference with human expert decisions for the same simulated population. Our novel approach provides a powerful resource for policy makers, and a platform which can be readily extended to capture future more nuanced policy spaces.
Credit card transactions predicted to be fraudulent by automated detection systems are typically handed over to human experts for verification. To limit costs, it is standard practice to select only the most suspicious transactions for investigation. We claim that a trade-off between exploration and exploitation is imperative to enable adaptation to changes in behavior (concept drift). Exploration consists of the selection and investigation of transactions with the purpose of improving predictive models, and exploitation consists of investigating transactions detected to be suspicious. Modeling the detection of fraudulent transactions as rewarding, we use an incremental Regression Tree learner to create clusters of transactions with similar expected rewards. This enables the use of a Contextual Multi-Armed Bandit (CMAB) algorithm to provide the exploration/exploitation trade-off. We introduce a novel variant of a CMAB algorithm that makes use of the structure of this tree, and use Semi-Supervised Learning to grow the tree using unlabeled data. The approach is evaluated on a real dataset and data generated by a simulator that adds concept drift by adapting the behavior of fraudsters to avoid detection. It outperforms frequently used offline models in terms of cumulative rewards, in particular in the presence of concept drift.
We have constructed an information extraction system called the Mars Target Encyclopedia that takes in planetary science publications and extracts scientific knowledge about target compositions. The extracted knowledge is stored in a searchable database that can greatly accelerate the ability of scientists to compare new discoveries with what is already known. To date, we have applied this system to ~6000 documents and achieved 41-56% precision in the extracted information.
Numerous urban planners advocate for differentiated transit pricing to improve both ridership and service equity. Several metropolitan cities are considering switching to a more "fair fare system," where passengers pay according to the distance travelled, rather than a flat fare or zone boundary scheme that discriminates against various marginalized groups. In this paper, we present a two-part optimal pricing formula for switching to distance-based transit fares: the first formula maximizes forecasted revenue given a target ridership, and the second formula maximizes forecasted ridership given a target revenue. Both formulas hold for all price elasticities. Our theory has been successfully tested on the SkyTrain mass transit network in Metro Vancouver, British Columbia, with over 400,000 daily passengers. This research has served Metro Vancouver's transportation authority as they consider changing their fare structure for the first time in over 30 years.
The unrelenting threat of poaching has led to increased development of new technologies to combat it. One such example is the use of long wave thermal infrared cameras mounted on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs or drones) to spot poachers at night and report them to park rangers before they are able to harm animals. However, monitoring the live video stream from these conservation UAVs all night is an arduous task. Therefore, we build SPOT (Systematic POacher deTector), a novel application that augments conservation drones with the ability to automatically detect poachers and animals in near real time. SPOT illustrates the feasibility of building upon state-of-the-art AI techniques, such as Faster RCNN, to address the challenges of automatically detecting animals and poachers in infrared images. This paper reports (i) the design and architecture of SPOT, (ii) a series of efforts towards more robust and faster processing to make SPOT usable in the field and provide detections in near real time, and (iii) evaluation of SPOT based on both historical videos and a real-world test run by the end users in the field. The promising results from the test in the field have led to a plan for larger-scale deployment in a national park in Botswana. While SPOT is developed for conservation drones, its design and novel techniques have wider application for automated detection from UAV videos.
Solar panels sustainably harvest energy from the sun. To improve performance, panels are often equipped with a tracking mechanism that computes the sun’s position in the sky throughout the day. Based on the tracker’s estimate of the sun’s location, a controller orients the panel to minimize the angle of incidence between solar radiant energy and the photovoltaic cells on the surface of the panel, increasing total energy harvested. Prior work has developed efficient tracking algorithms that accurately compute the sun’s location to facilitate solar tracking and control. However, always pointing a panel directly at the sun does not account for diffuse irradiance in the sky, reflected irradiance from the ground and surrounding surfaces, power required to reorient the panel, shading effects from neighboring panels and foliage, or changing weather conditions (such as clouds), all of which are contributing factors to the total energy harvested by a fleet of solar panels. In this work, we show that a bandit-based approach can increase the total energy harvested by solar panels by learning to dynamically account for such other factors. Our contribution is threefold: (1) the development of a test bed based on typical solar and irradiance models for experimenting with solar panel control using a variety of learning methods, (2) simulated validation that bandit algorithms can effectively learn to control solar panels, and (3) the design and construction of an intelligent solar panel prototype that learns to angle itself using bandit algorithms.
Estimating economic and developmental parameters such as poverty levels of a region from satellite imagery is a challenging problem that has many applications. We propose a two step approach to predict poverty in a rural region from satellite imagery. First, we engineer a multi-task fully convolutional deep network for simultaneously predicting the material of roof, source of lighting and source of drinking water from satellite images. Second, we use the predicted developmental statistics to estimate poverty. Using full-size satellite imagery as input, and without pre-trained weights, our models are able to learn meaningful features including roads, water bodies and farm lands, and achieve a performance that is close to the optimum. In addition to speeding up the training process, the multi-task fully convolutional model is able to discern task specific and independent feature representations.
Due to the limited natural water resources and the increase in population, managing water consumption is becoming an increasingly important subject worldwide. In this paper, we present and compare different machine learning models that are able to predict water demand for Central Indiana. The models are developed for two different time scales: daily and monthly. The input features for the proposed model include weather conditions (temperature, rainfall, snow), social features (holiday, median income), date (day of the year, month), and operational features (number of customers, previous water demand levels). The importance of these input features as accurate predictors is investigated. The results show that daily and monthly models based on recurrent neural networks produced the best results with an average error in prediction of 1.69% and 2.29%, respectively for 2016. These models achieve a high accuracy with a limited set of input features.
Customer Relationship Management (CRM) systems play an important role in helping companies identify and keep sales and service prospects. CRM service providers offer a range of tools and techniques that will help find, sell to and keep customers. To be effective, CRM users usually require extensive training. Predictive CRM using machine learning expands the capabilities of traditional CRM through the provision of predictive insights for CRM users by combining internal and external data. In this paper, we will explore a novel idea of computationally learning salesmanship, its patterns and success factors to drive industry intuitions for a more predictable road to a vehicle sale. The newly discovered patterns and insights are used to act as a virtual guide or trainer for the general CRM user population.
Classifying products precisely and efficiently is a major challenge in modern e-commerce. The high traffic of new products uploaded daily and the dynamic nature of the categories raise the need for machine learning models that can reduce the cost and time of human editors. In this paper, we propose a decision level fusion approach for multi-modal product classification based on text and image neural network classifiers. We train input specific state-of-the-art deep neural networks for each input source, show the potential of forging them together into a multi-modal architecture and train a novel policy network that learns to choose between them. Finally, we demonstrate that our multi-modal network improves classification accuracy over both networks on a real-world large-scale product classification dataset that we collected from Walmart.com. While we focus on image-text fusion that characterizes e-commerce businesses, our algorithms can be easily applied to other modalities such as audio, video, physical sensors, etc.