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#1 Fast Min-$\epsilon$ Segmented Regression using Constant-Time Segment Merging [PDF] [Copy] [Kimi] [REL]

Authors: Ansgar Lößer, Max Schlecht, Florian Schintke, Joel Witzke, Matthias Weidlich, Björn Scheuermann

Segmented regression is a statistical method that approximates a function $f$ by a piecewise function $\hat{f}$ using noisy data samples.*Min-$\epsilon$* approaches aim to reduce the regression function's mean squared error (MSE) for a given number of $k$ segments.An optimal solution for *min-$\epsilon$* segmented regression is found in $\mathcal{O}(n^2)$ time (Bai & Perron, 1998; Yamamoto & Perron, 2013) for $n$ samples. For large datasets, current heuristics improve time complexity to $\mathcal{O}(n\log{n})$ (Acharya et al., 2016) but can result in large errors, especially when exactly $k$ segments are used.We present a method for *min-$\epsilon$* segmented regression that combines the scalability of top existing heuristic solutions with a statistical efficiency similar to the optimal solution. This is achieved by using a new method to merge an initial set of segments using precomputed matrices from samples, allowing both merging and error calculation in constant time.Our approach, using the same samples and parameter $k$, produces segments with up to 1,000 times lower MSE compared to Acharya et al. (2016) in about 100 times less runtime on data sets over $10^4$ samples.

Subject: ICML.2025 - Poster